Talk:Fumble Chance

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Since NS13, has this been reevaluated? I'm seeing MUCH higher fumble rates with no obvious fumble modifiers. A quick estimate is 10%, but I'm collecting data to determine more carefully. Current PRELIMINARY data set follows:
date: Friday, August 24, 2007 / Martinus 2
character: Captain Cream (L20 Sauceror, 0 ascensions)
location: Beanbat Chamber
equipment: Bounty-hunting helmet, Bounty-hunting rifle, Bounty-hunting pants, Baron Von Ratsworth's monocle, Makeshift cape
familiar: none
songs: none
buffs: Fat Leon's Phat Loot Lyric
number of turns: 100
number of fumbles: 10 (note - 2 were consecutive within the same round of combat)
--Mis2027 11:52, 24 August 2007 (CDT)

As continuing proof that the RNG hates me, next 30 turns, same character, same day, etc....0 fumbles.

Analysis thus far (10 in 130): expected ~6, chi-square p-value = 0.085
definite trend varying from "1-in-22", but not there yet...
The spading continues...
--Mis2027 12:06, 24 August 2007 (CDT)

Acquired a bunch more data, and it looks like my perception was just out of whack ... pretty consistently, I see a fumble chance very close to 1-in-22. --Mis2027 20:26, 4 September 2007 (CDT)


Hm... I know there are only two items that multiply fumble chance (X3 from the Overly Elaborate Ninja Weapon and X2 from the "Humorous" T-Shirt), but does anyone know if those effects stack? Or does it work like criticals where only the highest modifier applies? --Wildfire393 13:43, 6 November 2007 (CST)

Using 2 of the vibrating cyborg knife and 1 humorous t-shirt, I got 3 fumbles out of 65 attacks. (13 of the hits were criticals.) That's a fumble rate of 4.6%, whereas the normal rate is 4.5%. So it really doesn't seem like their stacking. In fact, the std. dev. of the results rule out a x3 fumble factor being in play at all. edit I just noticed that having EoS halves fumble rate, which somewhat invalidates my conclusions.  :) Still there's no way I had x8 crits going from that data. --Starwed 02:15, 22 December 2007 (CST)
Using only the 2 knives I got 14 fumbles out of 162 attacks (18 were crits.) That's a rate of .086. --Starwed 05:21, 22 December 2007 (CST)

Red Fox glove

Should we mention the Red Fox glove here? It grants the Never Fumble enchantment indirectly, because Regular Attacks Can't Miss. I'd expect that Weapon Attack Skills could still fumble, if they are able to fumble in the first place, but I'm not sure such a case exists. --Yatsufusa (talk) 05:03, 17 July 2014 (UTC)

Really? I always assumed that "Can't Miss" only prevented missing. (Or glancing blows or whatever.) If it also prevents fumbling then the page should mention every source of the "Can't Miss" effect. (I can think of three more offhand: cube of billiard chalk, gremlin juice, and the Avatar of Boris' Song of Battle.) --Vorzer (talk) 14:32, 17 July 2014 (UTC)
Yea, pretty sure "Can't Miss" and "Can't Fumble" are two different things. In both cases, you cannot fumble, but only in "Can't Miss"'s case can you hit a monster even if your stats are too low. — Cool12309 (talk) 15:56, 17 July 2014 (UTC)
I never claimed otherwise. Since we seemingly both agree on the relevance, would you (or anyone, really) be able to write something comprehensible, since it appears nobody understands a bloody word I'm typing. --Yatsufusa (talk) 22:39, 17 July 2014 (UTC)
How about we make either a new page or just a section on this page for the Regular Attacks Can't Miss enchantments, since they are different? — Cool12309 (talk) 05:55, 18 July 2014 (UTC)
Sounds good to me. --Vorzer (talk) 14:22, 18 July 2014 (UTC)
Correct me if I'm wrong (I really mean it), but I know fumbling as a term in rpg combat only as rolling a critical failure on a hit-roll, so the character not only misses but hurts him- or herself in the process. When the segment of rolling for hit/miss is removed, it would be impossible to fumble as a consequence. --Yatsufusa (talk) 22:39, 17 July 2014 (UTC)