User:Damian Domino Davis

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Loather of 5 years is good with juggling numbers, and likes to share.

Optimal Beer Pong

Now that Low Key Summer has everyone revisiting pirates, what is optimal beer pong? Answer: Delay returning Cap'n's dentures until your big book of pirate insults has 5+ comebacks. If you acquire the dentures before this, take off the Swashbuckling Getup and continue practicing undisguised (or practice elsewhere). Returning the dentures to Barrrney's Barrr is immediately followed by the first chance to play; winning there and then in less than 10 turns is preferable to backing down at all.

Having learned 5 comebacks, the 6th is a gamble. It would save you an expected 2.8 turns:

  • ~45% chance to learn it in 1 turn, saving 1.8
  • ~70% chance to learn it within 2 turns, saving 0.8
  • ~30% chance to fail to learn the 6th comeback in time, wasting 2 turns

Over time, going for the 6th comeback works out to an expected savings of almost two-fifths of a turn (wowzers); so it's probably down to personal preference.

Comebacks known Chance for Embarassed Chance to learn new comebacks Chance to win Beer Pong Avg. Beer Pong turns
0 75% 75.0% (3 / 4) 0%
1 75% 71.875% (23 / 32) 0%
2 75% 67.634% (303 / 448) 0%
3 75% 61.942% (555 / 896) 1.786% 56 turns
4 75% 54.464% (61 / 112) 7.143% 14 turns
5 75% 44.866% (201 / 448) 17.857% 5.6 turns
6 75% 32.813% (21 / 64) 35.714% 2.8 turns
7 75% 17.969% (23 / 128) 62.5% 1.6 turns
8 75% 0% 100% 1 turn

(Proof in Python)